Toyota's strategy ...

[klarie]

@trobex and @TD5-90 correct. Before I continue - we are very close to political issues. As of now its a bit of philosophy.
Again this is a "model" - and how many people are indeed on the planet?

Seriously.. how to reduce people count.. ?
In certain countries a hight number of children counts as a reputation.
In certain countries "smoke kills", - "dont drive too fast it kills", do not drink and drive, alcohol causes harm, no drugs etc..
The same time in the very same country untested vaxes are used .. causing a lot of deadly side effects.

People are taken on machinery to prolong their lives, organ donation, but people who want assisted death or those who provide the equipment are criminalised.
We live in a weird world.

If we left Africa alone and not donate a lot of aid... the countries there still live in a post colonisation mode. Perhaps its better to allow them to sort out their issues by themselves instead by ruling these again by a global organizations such as UN, WHO etc.. or so.. they re grown ups.

If I see the pictures of all organisations please donate with pictures of little children or near empty rice bowls .. to animate for support. - Sometimes its perhaps better NOT to interfere... and it is difficult to ignore the "please donate" letters in Christmas season or the big ads.

If you go fishing and support a person with fish.. then you always have to fish for others.
What if you go and show how to fish and make the person self sustaining? So it becomes independent?

Unless you think the person will then say so long and thanks for all the fish.. and there is no more fish left for yourself.. so better keep the poor lad in dependency.

 

[Tom D]

We have a Tesla model 3, its actually a good car. Not perfect, but good. Would I buy another? Its a hard call.
We were early adopters and bought it about 3 years ago, back then there were loads of incentives to buy. You got a grant towards the cost of the car and a home charger. there was no BIK and electricity was so cheap then that a 300 mile charge cost about £9. Its also rapid! Remember the Ferrari testa rosa and Lambourgini Countach that all us kids of the 80's lusted after? Well its faster than them. I never thought I'd own a car that quick. The charging network was in its infancy back then but so was EV adoption so you could find a free charger easily. Also many local councils were providing free charging, so you could just rock up and charge for nothing! those were the days!

Now EV's are everywhere and the charging network hasn't caught up with demand, often you'll find them in use or broken. That said charging at home is still cheap and easy, just not as cheap as it was...If we were a 1 car family there's no way I'd own an EV. With two cars I think its actually pretty good, for long (over 200 mile) journeys we can take the diesel, but for the school run and day to day use its perfect. Our has a (theoretical ) 330 mile range, many don't have anything like that. Unless you drive like grandma you won't get that range, more like 70-80%. This is an issue with most EV's as many the an WLTP range of 250 miles or less, take 70% of that and you're getting into dodgy territory. I know several people who have bought EV's and then sold them as the lack of range was an issue. I wouldn't touch one that had a WLTP less than 300 miles.

Reasons to own an EV:
Cheap to run
Faster than equivalent ICE model (usually)
Can be used to balance the national grid, you can get cheap electricity to charge when supply is high..

Reasons not to own an EV:
Its your only car
You want to drive long distances
You want to tow

I think the Grenadier alongside the Tesla will be a good combination.

ICE's will be with us for a long time to come, they'll just be hybrids.

 

[Jeremy996]

Toyota have all of the basic technology to build a really good BEV; the only bit they are currently short of is bulk battery building capacity. With their new CEO, there is likely to be a step change in models in 2-5 years time.

I fail to see the fascination with e-fuels; using electricity to make hydrogen, then synthesise a hydrocarbon fuel from it leads to a massive loss of energy in terms of all the translation costs. Unless we have massive surpluses of green electricity, it is an economic non-starter and we are a long way from that today. I can see a minor use case for FCEVs (Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles), where energy is required 365/24/7 and there is no time for recharging, (heavy plant for one).

There will have to be more than one solution for transport; one viable one is massive urban public transport, as population concentrates in cities, but we are not the target market. A mix of BEVs, hybrids, and some ICEs, (my old LR ran on recycled plant oils), is both viable and more energy efficient than the current fleet.

 

[DesertGecko]

I dare you take the wife for a test drive in a Volvo XC40 . the twin recharge one.
If she doesn't giggle and say "I want one" (as well as the Jiminy) I'd be mightily surprised
(I imagine( it's a cheaper way of putting lead in your pencil than a Porsche

"I dare you take the wife for a test drive in a Volvo XC40".

It must be just me but I really didn't read that the way it was intended.

 

[globalgregors]

"I dare you take the wife for a test drive in a Volvo XC40".

It must be just me but I really didn't read that the way it was intended.

Tasmania, similar to the Eskimo tradition. Cold climate and all that.

 

[emax]

An article from my economy magazine "Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten":

------------------
Toyota patriarch reveals "silent majority" rejects focus on e-cars.

19.03.2023 09:08

NICOLAS DVORAK

The patriarch of Japanese automaker Toyota, Akio Toyoda, warns against too much focus on electric drive. He said he is part of a "silent majority" that rejects a one-sided commitment to e-cars as a model for the future and instead advocates openness to technology.

"The people employed in the car industry form a silent majority for the most part. This silent majority wonders if it's really okay to focus only on electric drive as the only option. But they think that's the current trend and that's why they can't be critical of it," the Wall Street Journal quotes the grandson of company founder Kiichiro Toyoda as saying.

Toyota - like BMW - is one of those automotive companies that have adopted an open technology course, i.e. in addition to the electric car, it is also focusing on the development of hybrid drives (fuel and battery drive combined) and hydrogen drives. "Because the right answer is still unclear, we should not limit ourselves to just one option," Toyoda said.

According to Toyoda, media campaigns and the apparent success of e-car makers such as Tesla, Rivian and Lucid have greatly influenced the perceptions of many politicians and business decision-makers. He says conversations with politicians in which he regularly warns of the risks of focusing too much on e-drives and promotes the benefits of a multi-pronged strategy are "sobering."

Electric competitive disadvantages

Toyoda lists some of the problems still plaguing the e-car market. These include, for example, problems in sourcing the raw material ff needed to build the drive batteries and other components of the car, such as the drive motors.

Also related to these sourcing problems is the high selling price of electric cars, which remains a competitive disadvantage compared with hybrid models and cars with internal combustion engines.

In addition, according to Toyoda, there is almost no sufficiently developed network of charging stations anywhere in the world. Potential buyers are therefore holding back - also because the range problem is still one of the biggest disadvantages of electric cars.

Toyoda's skepticism is publicly shared by some of its competitors. According to top Mazda officials, it only pays to turn a combustion engine into an electric car for smaller cars because the raw material and energy consumption involved in producing large traction batteries simply doesn't justify the bottom line.

Without subsidies, demand will fall

Sales figures for electric cars have risen significantly in recent years - both globally and in Europe and Germany. However, these figures do not reflect a realistic picture of the competitiveness of e-cars, because in the vast majority of cases they have been driven by massive government subsidies, which are apparently intended to help make up for the price disadvantage compared with internal combustion engines.

A look at Germany shows what happens when these subsidies are cut back or even eliminated: since the German government significantly reduced the subsidies at the turn of the year, sales figures have virtually collapsed.

In January, around 18,100 electric vehicles were newly registered and just under 9,000 plug-in hybrids - a sharp drop compared with December, when more than 100,000 pure electric vehicles and almost 70,000 plug-in hybrids were registered. Observers assume that many consumers have brought forward car purchases in order to still receive the higher subsidies at the end of 2022. Significantly, however, registrations for these two drive types also fell by 13.2 percent and 53.2 percent, respectively, compared with January 2022.

Meanwhile, the German Association of the Automotive Industry expects the market share of electric cars to decline. This is likely to fall by three percentage points year-on-year to 28 percent in 2023, VDA President Hildegard Müller told Welt am Sonntag. The decline is due to the slump in sales of plug-in hybrids, i.e. cars with both a combustion engine and an electric motor, she said.

Plug-in hybrids, which use a combustion engine in addition to an electric motor, have not been subsidized since the beginning of the year. The subsidies for battery and fuel cell cars have been reduced. Buyers of fully electric cars can now receive a maximum of €4,500 from the state instead of €6,000 if their car is listed for sale at less than €40,000 net. For more expensive vehicles up to a net list price of 65,000 euros, there is still 3,000 euros instead of the previous 5,000 euros. In 2024, the subsidy premiums will fall further.

The reduced government subsidies would have a "negative impact on the ramp-up of electromobility," Müller said. "That makes it all the more important now to boost people's confidence in electromobility in other ways." Consumers, he said, need "the certainty of being able to charge uncomplicatedly at any time and anywhere." To reach the German government's target of one million charging points by 2030, the pace of expansion must be quintupled, the association said.

The share of cars with electric drives was only 3.3 percent in 2022, according to the Federal Motor Transport Authority, despite subsidy-induced growth in recent years.

It remains to be seen how sales figures will develop in the current year under the weakened subsidies and even more so next year when further cuts are due. However, the fact that electromobility is not really getting off the ground despite years of billions in taxpayer subsidies raises fundamental questions about the market maturity of the technology.

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Translated with deepl, translation errors redacted by me (as fas as I found them).

 

[trobex]

Toyota is not stupid. They will sell what sells until they need to change. There is absolutely NO comparison on cost v function when it comes to EVs at present. Imagine a true Grenadier competitor all electric with more than 300kms range... what will that look like and HOW expensive will it be AND how extremely heavy will it be...

 

[emax]

They will sell what sells until they need to change.

Everyone will. That's nothing special and therefore an argument for nothing.

But even if the motivation is "selling" (surprise?) the arguments are still there, and I think they are right. As written, sales in Germany dropped significantly after the government cut subsidies. So it seems that e-cars are simply not competitive. In my estimation, they are indeed not, and as it stands, they are not for many others either.

 

[r1978]

Toyota had the sensible approach to pollution by taking the hybrid route. Unfortunately they were done in by the politicians jumping the gun for a leap forward into EVs before the enabling infrastructure was ready. That's unfortunate. Now they seems to be making this mistake of pushing fuel cells without appropriate infra in place. They may work from fleets and edge cases but will likely not become a mass market. EVs on the other hand have the momentum already to keep going forward and grabbing market share. ICEs will need to continue to get cleaner but are likely to stay around far longer than most expect. The problem is if investment dries up. It might hasten the transiton

 

[DaveB]

Toyota is not stupid. They will sell what sells until they need to change. There is absolutely NO comparison on cost v function when it comes to EVs at present. Imagine a true Grenadier competitor all electric with more than 300kms range... what will that look like and HOW expensive will it be AND how extremely heavy will it be...

Early on the 90 litre tank with only about 800km range was a real negative on the Grenadier but people tend to look at a 300km range on an EV as being a positive.
How big and heavy would an EV 4wd need to be to get a 1,000 km range?
6 tonne?

 

[trobex]

Everyone will. That's nothing special and therefore an argument for nothing.

But even if the motivation is "selling" (surprise?) the arguments are still there, and I think they are right. As written, sales in Germany dropped significantly after the government cut subsidies. So it seems that e-cars are simply not competitive. In my estimation, they are indeed not, and as it stands, they are not for many others either.

That is not correct, not everyone will change as some will require forcible movements / legislation to do so. Do you think coal fired power stations would have been run in to the ground here in Australian if it wasnt for the forced changes in law to put downward pressure on them? No, they would remain totally viable for another 30 years if the status quo remained.

Some businesses are changing of their own free will. Leading this point as an example, ELON steered TELSA to create a car that didn't need to be created as it was not financially viable whatsoever... but did so at great cost and risk and they hinged off the idea that 'others' would take up the game and buy a very expensive car to force change... What I mean is, Toyota is not woke, and couldn't care less about change unless its financially OK to do so - but to my point - won't change unless made to do so where it will remain competitive with the other suppliers. It's entirely valid argument and completely true of the current situation for Toyota. Toyota's current 'hybrid' such as their RAV4 is also a bit of a joke... it looks good in the advertising campaign and has very limited real-world benefit!

 

[trobex]

Early on the 90 litre tank with only about 800km range was a real negative on the Grenadier but people tend to look at a 300km range on an EV as being a positive.
How big and heavy would an EV 4wd need to be to get a 1,000 km range?
6 tonne?

I would say minimum 4.5T for 800km range given kw/h>battery weight and assuming an original weight of 2.5T for the vehicle... and remember that's 800km on a straight road not towing. EVs with 300km range would be at 200km with anything in tow... EVs are great for cities and general short range driving conditions, although very expensive, but make little reason for rural/off road use. A can with 20L spare diesel will also go a long way to saving the day, good luck sitting at the charging station waiting for your turn, and then further waiting for charge up anything over 100kwh. Oh, that reminds me I saw a flat Telsa the other day on M1 betwen GC and Brisbane. The RACQ truck had him plugged in to get him home!!!

PS: Wife and I have decided her next car (few years yet) will be all electric for town. So do not think I have no room for EVs - in fact - I think they are sensational for city/town use.
PPS: It will not be a hybrid unless they actually make a REAL hybrid and not some '50km range on battery' bogus.

 

[Max]

but to my point - won't change unless made to do so where it will remain competitive with the other suppliers. It's entirely valid argument and completely true of the current situation for Toyota. Toyota's current 'hybrid' such as their RAV4 is also a bit of a joke... it looks good in the advertising campaign and has very limited real-world benefit!

Toyota gets it wrong again...


4 Jan 2023 — The RAV4 was Australia's best-selling hybrid with 26,547 sales, representing 76.2 per cent of the model's sales.

​

Toyota remained world's biggest car maker in 2022 - CarAdvice​

https://www.drive.com.au/news/toyota-remains-worlds-biggest-car-maker-in-2022/
https://www.drive.com.au/news/toyota-remains-worlds-biggest-car-maker-in-2022/
https://www.drive.com.au/news/toyota-remains-worlds-biggest-car-maker-in-2022/

Toyota Australia records best sales in 14 years, dominates ...​

Car Expert
https://www.carexpert.com.au › Car News › Toyota





https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/toyota-hybrids-break-sales-record-despite-shortages

 

[trobex]

Toyota gets it wrong again...


4 Jan 2023 — The RAV4 was Australia's best-selling hybrid with 26,547 sales, representing 76.2 per cent of the model's sales.

​

Toyota remained world's biggest car maker in 2022 - CarAdvice​

https://www.drive.com.au/news/toyota-remains-worlds-biggest-car-maker-in-2022/
https://www.drive.com.au/news/toyota-remains-worlds-biggest-car-maker-in-2022/
https://www.drive.com.au/news/toyota-remains-worlds-biggest-car-maker-in-2022/

Toyota Australia records best sales in 14 years, dominates ...​

View attachment 7806601
Car Expert
https://www.carexpert.com.au › Car News › Toyota





https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/toyota-hybrids-break-sales-record-despite-shortages

I never said it was not selling - but it's a great marketing outcome. They are selling an expensive car that needs daily charging to make sure you get that acclaimed MPG. Good for again, city dwellers or sub 80km round trips. Still a noisy and overpriced vehicle with several common issues! Average fuel consumption is actually pretty good - until you have to deal with Toyota servicing and complaints!!!

 

[Tazzieman]

We just did another weekend away in my wife's Volvo Recharge. ¬600km, including mountains and twisty back roads .
1 single charge , took 50 minutes, which was the time we spent enjoying lunch.
With the one pedal drive function we actually went from 33 to 38% on the last bit home.
7 months with an EV and nothing bad to report. So in our neck of the woods it's working well. And goes like stink , though that novelty soon wears off.
MPG? Don't know , couldn't care!

 

[trobex]

We just did another weekend away in my wife's Volvo Recharge. ¬600km, including mountains and twisty back roads .
1 single charge , took 50 minutes, which was the time we spent enjoying lunch.
With the one pedal drive function we actually went from 33 to 38% on the last bit home.
7 months with an EV and nothing bad to report. So in our neck of the woods it's working well. And goes like stink , though that novelty soon wears off.
MPG? Don't know , couldn't care!

You mean two full charges to get home? That sounds about right. MPG - with full electric no one cares!

PS: What does a full charge cost anyway these days from a charging station / or cost per KWh?

The Chinese are investing hard in the EV segment that's for sure!

 

[Max]

You mean two full charges to get home? That sounds about right. MPG - with full electric no one cares!

PS: What does a full charge cost anyway these days from a charging station / or cost per KWh?

The Chinese are investing hard in the EV segment that's for sure!

And we have to take a carbon footprint for the sale of coal that travels to coal fired power stations overseas….doesn’t make a great deal of sense closing ours…but unfortunately the electric phenomena is starting to affect the environment in so many ways…

 

[Tazzieman]

PS: What does a full charge cost anyway these days from a charging station / or cost per KWh?

Depends upon the charging station , speed of charger , when you hook up (lower cost after hours) etc
Full fast charge yesterday would have cost about $50
Or I read if you get an sub with Origin energy they are offering "free" electricity for EVs.
But nothing is free.

 

[DesertGecko]

I never said it was not selling - but it's a great marketing outcome. They are selling an expensive car that needs daily charging to make sure you get that acclaimed MPG. Good for again, city dwellers or sub 80km round trips. Still a noisy and overpriced vehicle with several common issues! Average fuel consumption is actually pretty good - until you have to deal with Toyota servicing and complaints!!!

Hybrids are the worst of all worlds. All the complexity and downsides of both drivetrains. We will laugh in years to come...

I concede that there are limited EV choices at the moment, and may make sense in some cases.

 

[trobex]

And we have to take a carbon footprint for the sale of coal that travels to coal fired power stations overseas….doesn’t make a great deal of sense closing ours…but unfortunately the electric phenomena is starting to affect the environment in so many ways…

I have read multiple times that 1KWh of generated power, creates roughly 900 grams of CO2... so a 50KWh charges creates 45kg of CO2. That seems excessive... to say the least and lets assume half is renewable generation so 22kgs of CO2. I must be missing the math but for a 50KWh charge and assume that gets you 200KMS travel and 22kgs of CO2.
200km of travel in my ute, for example, would require around 20L of fuel, 20L of fuel cannot possibly create 45KG of CO2. Can someone explain HOW EVs are creating less CO2 than petrol? Is the math made up by these companies?
Please explain.