Toyota's strategy ...

[trobex]

Sorry I understand the confusion. It's a bit of a mind bender that one. So is the weight of the gas. A couple of other points.

A lot of enquiry is done on the production of the batteries which is fair. However when we talk about fuel we use that ratio. 1:2.7 kg. But we don't account for all the inputs to getting that fuel to the pump. The exploration, mining, transport, storage, more transport to the station, pumping etc.

The other point which is largely missed is that Lithium batteries are highly recyclable. So yes you're commissioning half a ton of lithium batteries. But at the end of life they will be recycled and will go again. So it's not like every EV you buy will be another bunch of batteries if that makes sense.

Recycling Lithium is extremely energy hungry process and also requires other elements in the process, BUT if it is undertaken with 'renewable' generation as the input power source, then it makes sense. Australia is suffering big time, with a 26-30% rise on power in a month, no gas supply, no new fuel/gas mining (well the Left government is trying to ban it) and we rely on imports as we closed our own refineries for petrol/diesel etc (of we have 1 small one left down south). Renewables here have been the root cause of substantial and devastating power outages, especially in the southern regions. Now the taxpayer has to fund the problems created by hammering into a renewable program that does not have the infrastructure or maturity to hold its own - not even close.

Toyota and all the other EV suppliers will produce EVs moving forward, what countries cannot do is recharge the mass of batteries laying in garages, car parks, basements of high rises etc. Baseload power generation in Australia for example does not have sufficient power to charge an EV market at 20% of the average daily use of a vehicles. There simply isn't enough 'spare' kwh generation to support that, and particularly, nighttime generation would be completely blown out the water with no generation measure able to supply demand (its already happening in 4 of our states with nighttime loads at peak capacity and unable to generate more). Add another 200GWh of generation and we 'might' be ok in 10 years' time when 25% of our market is full EV... this of course excludes freight and heavy transporters - add another 140GWh to replace fossil fuels and we should be ok!

I was looking at all the current EVs available to Australia and to be honest - not one piques my interest. Not even the slightest. Nothing for the family, for any form of haul, for any form of extended trip. All city cars. This should change in 5 years though as they bring proper sized vehicles to the market which can fit more than 2 kids and bag of groceries!

 

[DesertGecko]

Lithium-ion battery recycling - CSIRO​

View attachment 7806725
CSIRO
https://www.csiro.au › energy-in-the-circular-economy





View attachment 7806726
only 10 per cent of Australia's lithium-ion battery waste was recycled in 2021, compared with 99 per cent of lead acid battery waste · lithium-ion battery waste ...

That's because at this point, all of our Lithium battery waste is tiny little battery packs put into a huge variety of consumer devices. The challenge is collecting them - not actually recycling them.

We don't have any EV's old enough to need battery recycling yet, but when we do I can assure you that a 500kg battery pack will be worth doing. Did you read this on that page? CSIRO think they are 95% recyclable!

if recycled, 95 per cent of lithium-ion battery components can be turned into new batteries or used in other industries.

 

[DesertGecko]

Recycling Lithium is extremely energy hungry process and also requires other elements in the process, BUT if it is undertaken with 'renewable' generation as the input power source, then it makes sense. Australia is suffering big time, with a 26-30% rise on power in a month, no gas supply, no new fuel/gas mining (well the Left government is trying to ban it) and we rely on imports as we closed our own refineries for petrol/diesel etc (of we have 1 small one left down south). Renewables here have been the root cause of substantial and devastating power outages, especially in the southern regions. Now the taxpayer has to fund the problems created by hammering into a renewable program that does not have the infrastructure or maturity to hold its own - not even close.

Toyota and all the other EV suppliers will produce EVs moving forward, what countries cannot do is recharge the mass of batteries laying in garages, car parks, basements of high rises etc. Baseload power generation in Australia for example does not have sufficient power to charge an EV market at 20% of the average daily use of a vehicles. There simply isn't enough 'spare' kwh generation to support that, and particularly, nighttime generation would be completely blown out the water with no generation measure able to supply demand (its already happening in 4 of our states with nighttime loads at peak capacity and unable to generate more). Add another 200GWh of generation and we 'might' be ok in 10 years' time when 25% of our market is full EV... this of course excludes freight and heavy transporters - add another 140GWh to replace fossil fuels and we should be ok!

I was looking at all the current EVs available to Australia and to be honest - not one piques my interest. Not even the slightest. Nothing for the family, for any form of haul, for any form of extended trip. All city cars. This should change in 5 years though as they bring proper sized vehicles to the market which can fit more than 2 kids and bag of groceries!

Out of interest, I watched a Grenadier video last night. With the seats down the cargo capacity is 2000L.

The Tesla we have on order is 2158L. And its 45k cheaper than the cost of my Grenadier. I reckon it will be a perfect second to the grenadier. It can soak up all the city running.

I understand that EV's might not appeal to everyone. I reckon don't worry about it! Drive what you want to drive, there are lots of people for whom an EV is a good fit so lets get that sorted first.

 

[Max]

It is not what we use, the problem is what we waste...in all walks of life we waste unfortunately we dispose of in approved areas and some are cancerous spots on the environment because we shovel it away with the hope it will go away...hopefully, we will come to our senses...but until then we will go round in circles...or we get off the merry-go-round and leave it to someone else...Mother nature has no mercy.

DesertGecko says​

That's because at this point, all of our Lithium battery waste is tiny little battery packs put into a huge variety of consumer devices. The challenge is collecting them - not actually recycling them.

Why then are CSIRO saying....Most of Australia's battery waste is shipped overseas. The waste that remains is left in landfill, leading to a potential fires and environmental contamination.

I am talking real-time by tomorrow we will be disposing of very little, I would like to think, if we are true to ourselves and not to the dollar.

 

[trobex]

Out of interest, I watched a Grenadier video last night. With the seats down the cargo capacity is 2000L.

The Tesla we have on order is 2158L. And its 45k cheaper than the cost of my Grenadier. I reckon it will be a perfect second to the grenadier. It can soak up all the city running.

I understand that EV's might not appeal to everyone. I reckon don't worry about it! Drive what you want to drive, there are lots of people for whom an EV is a good fit so lets get that sorted first.

Model 3 or the SUV? SUV is gross - Model 3 looks ok haha!

 

[DesertGecko]

Model 3 or the SUV? SUV is gross - Model 3 looks ok haha!

Unfortunately (!!) we need the Y. We need the space and the hatchback.

Personally I think the Y looks very heavy and blobby in light colours like the white. I think in the darker colours it looks ok. It's a total tardis inside!

 

[cheswick]

of we have 1 small one left down south

There are two left:
Lytton - Ampol
Geelong - Viva

I'd say these will stay open as the government is paying a subsidy on production so we at least retain some capacity to sustain our defence force if there is a disruption to foreign imports.

 

[trobex]

There are two left:
Lytton - Ampol
Geelong - Viva

I'd say these will stay open as the government is paying a subsidy on production so we at least retain some capacity to sustain our defence force if there is a disruption to foreign imports.

These cannot support the nation, not even close. If true disruption comes, we are dead ducks. Might keep a few jets in the air for a day or two.

 

[Tazzieman]

only 10 per cent of Australia's lithium-ion battery waste was recycled in 2021, compared with 99 per cent of lead acid battery waste · lithium-ion battery waste ...

Just as well we have the future to look forward to!

Dear Drive... What happens to old EV batteries?

The lifespan of electric vehicle batteries is often questioned. So what happens to them once they've been retired.

www.drive.com.au

 

[DesertGecko]

Just as well we have the future to look forward to!

Dear Drive... What happens to old EV batteries?

The lifespan of electric vehicle batteries is often questioned. So what happens to them once they've been retired.

www.drive.com.au

FYI .. the statement "Electric vehicle batteries have an average lifespan of 10 years. As a general rule, they’ll lose their capacity after prolonged use meaning their driving range will also decrease over time." is total trash. There are no or virtually no Teslas or nissans over ten years old. So how can that be the average age? That's just a total rubbish statement.

Next up.. Nissan with their Leaf.. all the batteries fail because they are rubbish. No thermal management. They are the only maker who uses "passive" cooling because batteries die quickly. In QLD the Leaf batteries only last as little as two or three years.

The Tesla batteries which are much better managed seem to degrade much much slower. Approximately 5% degradation every 160,000 miles. If I gave an age I'd just be making it up like the guy in that article.

 

[Tazzieman]

You seem to have strong views.

 

[emax]

if recycled ...

That's the point.

 

[emax]

There are no or virtually no Teslas or nissans over ten years old. So how can that be the average age?

There are zillions of batteries in the world, and their aging is well studied. Therefore, the chemistry and their behavior are easy to extrapolate if you only know the currents, charge/discharge cycles, temperatures and the charging/discharging conditions. All of this is known accurately for each EV model.

Tesla (and other manufacturers) could not and should not otherwise make any statements about durability.

 

[Max]

Just as well we have the future to look forward to!

• only 10 per cent of Australia's lithium-ion battery waste was recycled in 2021, compared with 99 per cent of lead acid battery waste
• lithium-ion battery waste is growing by 20 per cent per year and could exceed 136,000 tonnes by 2036
• if recycled, 95 per cent of lithium-ion battery components can be turned into new batteries or used in other industries.

Most of Australia's battery waste is shipped overseas. The waste that remains is left in landfill, leading to a potential fires and environmental contamination.

I have only ever looked forward to the future, what is the alternative...my issue is waste here in Australia in real time and the lack of proper management now...we are chasing the new sciences tails.

 

[Deleted User Account.]

It's always an economies of scale thing. Once there are enough battery packs lying around to justify the expense of recycling as opposed to mining, particularly if it means that the recycled gets credit for sourcing the recycled lithium domestically, then it'll start happening on a large scale and become more efficient and cost effective. It'll happen sooner rather than later unless battery tech evolves beyond lithium.

 

[Max]

The new battery could still be the fuel cell…but not positive…sorry ha

 

[trobex]

FYI .. the statement "Electric vehicle batteries have an average lifespan of 10 years. As a general rule, they’ll lose their capacity after prolonged use meaning their driving range will also decrease over time." is total trash. There are no or virtually no Teslas or nissans over ten years old. So how can that be the average age? That's just a total rubbish statement.

Next up.. Nissan with their Leaf.. all the batteries fail because they are rubbish. No thermal management. They are the only maker who uses "passive" cooling because batteries die quickly. In QLD the Leaf batteries only last as little as two or three years.

The Tesla batteries which are much better managed seem to degrade much much slower. Approximately 5% degradation every 160,000 miles. If I gave an age, I'd just be making it up like the guy in that article.

I think you interpreted that wrong - the average "lifespan" is 10 years in design of a battery and they will last far longer, but it is not the average EV battery age. Model S Telsa however hit the shelves in 2012 and are 10 years old this year. Yes, the batteries to fade overtime and a single replacement electric drive is worth more than a new MG! 11-12% degradation on a friends Model S at 130Ks, but, heavy cycling of the battery recharge (lots of running close to low then full change etc etc). Still has a 450km range though, I think, from last chat.
If your battery pack requires replacement after warranty ends, your $20K in the tube!!! It's the one thing that would steer me away from every buying 2nd hand EVs out of warranty.

 

[DesertGecko]

You seem to have strong views.

If they had said "Some industry expert expects the average battery life to be 10 years" maybe. But they just said it as a fact. The average age of a battery is 10 years. How do they know that?

I get a bit fired up when press say things that are not true as facts.

It's maths!

 

[DesertGecko]

I think you interpreted that wrong - the average "lifespan" is 10 years in design of a battery and they will last far longer, but it is not the average EV battery age. Model S Telsa however hit the shelves in 2012 and are 10 years old this year. Yes, the batteries to fade overtime and a single replacement electric drive is worth more than a new MG! 11-12% degradation on a friends Model S at 130Ks, but, heavy cycling of the battery recharge (lots of running close to low then full change etc etc). Still has a 450km range though, I think, from last chat.
If your battery pack requires replacement after warranty ends, your $20K in the tube!!! It's the one thing that would steer me away from every buying 2nd hand EVs out of warranty.

Yeah.. I expect they will go a bit softer over time. But it doesn't mean they need to be replaced at 10 years. They will probably still be going ok into the 10's. Plus LFP's are supposed to have a longer life with less degradation.

Replacement battery costs will come down too for sure. The cars requiring replacement batteries now really are on the bleeding edge. There are simply only a relative handful of cars that old. And there are even smaller numbers of them in Australia. If it becomes a common requirement there will be a solution. It's like the argument "I won't buy an EV because there is no battery recycling". That's because there are no EV batteries to recycle!

I'd like to point out that most modern cars.. by the time they reach 10 they are generally not running as well as in their former years, and they are well and truly on their drift into the jaws of the crusher. For most modern cars - once they pass maybe 10 they get killed by an economic factor as their value declines. A relatively small crash, or major component failure and they just aren't worth fixing. I honestly don't see the EV long term proposition as materially different.

My defender is like 18. It needed a 3500 repair recently. If it was a normal car and was worth 4/5ths of very little it probably wouldn't have been worth doing, but because it still has substantial value it was a no brainer. And that's also why it gets well maintained which also leads it to being in excellent condition.

I expect that in 10-15 years time, when we have a reasonable number of EV's in that range... if they still have any value then battery repair/replacement services will pop up.

 

[Tazzieman]

If your battery pack requires replacement after warranty ends, your $20K in the tube!!! It's the one thing that would steer me away from every buying 2nd hand EVs out of warranty.

1, All modern cars leave you at least 20k poorer due to depreciation (let's not mention loan costs)
2. Modern ICE vehicles crap themselves - irreparable transmissions , engine issues that can easily cost north of 15-20k - and leave you with no choice!

For some reason people love to tell me about their mechanical woes and terrible service at dealerships.
1 reason I personally haven't bought new since 1998 and do my own mechanical work.
Now I'm ahead with money in the bank I can take the risk with new cars!