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Idle speculation on the cause of the delay..

Tom D

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So my guess is its some sort of critical issue in the software. Most likely related to some kind of safety critical or emissions critical issue.

They appear to be building the cars without too much difficulty, the engine management systems will be well proven by now with all the testing, so I suspect that its falling foul of some rule or regulation? Given that both the EU and AUS have similar emissions and safety rules I'm thinking its something along those lines... Whatever it is its something that they can't just patch up with a recall down the line?
Its also surprising that if its just a software update it couldn't have been done quicker..

Lets hear your theories.. we can see in a few months who was closest..
 

marko

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Total guess on my part but the delay may be due to the requirement for the software to undergo some independent verification/testing, the time for which would not be under IA’s control. Something that’s a critical part of a safety (or emissions) system spring to mind. I must add that I have no professional experience of Automotive so may be totally off the mark here.
 

Eric

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Total guess on my part but the delay may be due to the requirement for the software to undergo some independent verification/testing, the time for which would not be under IA’s control. Something that’s a critical part of a safety (or emissions) system spring to mind. I must add that I have no professional experience of Automotive so may be totally off the mark here.
The two stories doing the rounds - airbag related and cancellation of emergency call by the driver.
There is a connection between these to items.
In the event of a major accident and the airbag is deployed it should automatically make an emergency call and relay the location of the accident.
So it may well be the software update
 
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The two stories doing the rounds - airbag related and cancellation of emergency call by the driver.
There is a connection between these to items.
In the event of a major accident and the airbag is deployed it should automatically make an emergency call and relay the location of the accident.
So it may well be the software update
Thats coming off asap
 

AnD3rew

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The two stories doing the rounds - airbag related and cancellation of emergency call by the driver.
There is a connection between these to items.
In the event of a major accident and the airbag is deployed it should automatically make an emergency call and relay the location of the accident.
So it may well be the software update
If that was the case, don’t know why they couldn’t be shipping the Australian ones because ours don’t have the emergency call
 

DaveB

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I was told they are doing extremely thorough inspections of the first 1300-1500 production vehicles so they can make any modifications needed to the production line
So if they find the left rear door has slightly different panel gaps than others they can adjust the robot so it stops happening
If you multiply this across hundreds/thousands of components then it takes a lot of time.
I assume the ones that have gone out have been inspected and any changes made.
If they have discovered software/firmware issue that needs changes made then these changes would need to be thoroughly tested to see what flow on effect they have.
about 3 years ago I received a letter from Mercedes telling me they needed to update the firmware on my car as they had found an issue
I needed to bring it in and it would take them 30 minutes
My car was 5 years old at that stage and way out of warranty
I assume Ineos doesn't load the firmware at the factory and instead it comes pre-loaded from the component manufacturer
It would be easy for Ineos to put the update in the vehicles on the production line but the ones sitting outside or in dealers would be harder
 

Solmanic

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If that was the case, don’t know why they couldn’t be shipping the Australian ones because ours don’t have the emergency call
Are we sure none of the Australian first batch aren’t already on-water? If they’ve been pumping out materially complete vehicles at such a rate that they’ve had to start shipping to EU & UK dealerships without this software update then it’s possible the first batch of ours already went out the door too.
 

AnD3rew

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Are we sure none of the Australian first batch aren’t already on-water? If they’ve been pumping out materially complete vehicles at such a rate that they’ve had to start shipping to EU & UK dealerships without this software update then it’s possible the first batch of ours already went out the door too.
They may be, there was a rumour that a few were. If they do actually arrive in the next few weeks will be very interesting to see if they are released into the wild or if they also have to wait for a software update.
 

CEMechanic

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While it would be nice if there would be just one or two issues holding up deliveries - most likely it will be an over simplification of the mountain of challenges Team Ineos will have to fix for us right now.

1.) To begin with it is highly likely that we are still in a rectification phase of all technical issues that were found during the development of the Grenadier.

Typically the goal is to have all of them fixed before production starts. Issues get ranked by safety, technical, reliability criteria and the likelihood of these failures impacting all cars are assessed as well as the severity.
With this, a technical issue leading to a potential safety issue needs to be addressed, as well as a technical issue leading to a failure of a major component that will put the car out of operation. Likewise an issue that has little technical risk but that is impacting the entire production and that will be seen as a failure by customers will need to be addressed.
A low risk, low magnitude issue might be put to the bottom of the list and might not get addressed before production launch, or it only has an interim solution until a permanent fix is being developed and put in production.
The problem is - with a new design like the Grenadier - it can be expected that new issues that were not found during the development phase, will be identified - in production and in the field with the customers.
The higher Ineos sets the internal bar for quality, the higher the chance that vehicles that have been produced already will have to be reworked before being released to the customer. We heard the expression ‚batch and hold‘ in this context.

2.) we need to expand our view on what we think is happening at the Hambach facility to the entire supply base. The suppliers need to ramp up at the same Takt that Hambach wants to produce cars.
They need to refine the tooling, need to train new staff they are hiring, need to fix technical issues that are falling under their responsibility. We are dealing with a brand new frame from Gestamp, new axles from Carraro that are purpose built for the Grenadier.

4.) With all the newness of the Grenadier there is still the issue of the global supply chain constraints that are hitting pretty much every manufacturing domain. These days It is often the case that suppliers that have committed to your supply chain employees and in the MRP system to only let you down the following day. With todays just in time processes this makes you loose a production day. In a car factory you might have up to three shifts worth of lineside material to give you a buffer, but the following day your production is haulted.

4.) People! With a brand new organisation, a brand new design to be created, so many new parts to be built, a new assembly line to be ramped up, new suppliers - there is so much new hiring going on that it is really hard to understand how chaotic the world in manufacturing can be.
Everybody in the organisation will have a very steep learning curve to climb, they will do their very best for sure, but they will make mistakes that lead to new problems. Due to lack of experience it will also take much longer for issues to be resolved.

Ramping up production is not for the faint hearted. It is extremely challenging for everybody involved. From the outside we may wonder why we won’t get an update or firm commitments on dates. Until technical processes are debugged, teams are stabilised, it is really difficult to make a statement, simply because you don’t know what hits you next.
Every day the team will get closer to a ‘boring’ factory, this is a good thing! Because what is boring is also predictable, what is predictable must be reliable.

I understand this is a bit of a handful to read, but sometimes it seems we have a tendency to oversimplify the task of putting a new car in production with a new team.
 

Sam

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I’m inclined to agree that it’s nothing significantly material, or the built cars wouldn’t’ve shipped, they’d’ve been held back. Perhaps a minor/superficial material fault/omission.

So rather a software, regulatory, or (I speculate much more likely) a hold for a commercial reason.

edit: ☝🏻 agree with previous poster… waaay complicated and waay over-simplified
 

grenadierboy

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While it would be nice if there would be just one or two issues holding up deliveries - most likely it will be an over simplification of the mountain of challenges Team Ineos will have to fix for us right now.

1.) To begin with it is highly likely that we are still in a rectification phase of all technical issues that were found during the development of the Grenadier.

Typically the goal is to have all of them fixed before production starts. Issues get ranked by safety, technical, reliability criteria and the likelihood of these failures impacting all cars are assessed as well as the severity.
With this, a technical issue leading to a potential safety issue needs to be addressed, as well as a technical issue leading to a failure of a major component that will put the car out of operation. Likewise an issue that has little technical risk but that is impacting the entire production and that will be seen as a failure by customers will need to be addressed.
A low risk, low magnitude issue might be put to the bottom of the list and might not get addressed before production launch, or it only has an interim solution until a permanent fix is being developed and put in production.
The problem is - with a new design like the Grenadier - it can be expected that new issues that were not found during the development phase, will be identified - in production and in the field with the customers.
The higher Ineos sets the internal bar for quality, the higher the chance that vehicles that have been produced already will have to be reworked before being released to the customer. We heard the expression ‚batch and hold‘ in this context.

2.) we need to expand our view on what we think is happening at the Hambach facility to the entire supply base. The suppliers need to ramp up at the same Takt that Hambach wants to produce cars.
They need to refine the tooling, need to train new staff they are hiring, need to fix technical issues that are falling under their responsibility. We are dealing with a brand new frame from Gestamp, new axles from Carraro that are purpose built for the Grenadier.

4.) With all the newness of the Grenadier there is still the issue of the global supply chain constraints that are hitting pretty much every manufacturing domain. These days It is often the case that suppliers that have committed to your supply chain employees and in the MRP system to only let you down the following day. With todays just in time processes this makes you loose a production day. In a car factory you might have up to three shifts worth of lineside material to give you a buffer, but the following day your production is haulted.

4.) People! With a brand new organisation, a brand new design to be created, so many new parts to be built, a new assembly line to be ramped up, new suppliers - there is so much new hiring going on that it is really hard to understand how chaotic the world in manufacturing can be.
Everybody in the organisation will have a very steep learning curve to climb, they will do their very best for sure, but they will make mistakes that lead to new problems. Due to lack of experience it will also take much longer for issues to be resolved.

Ramping up production is not for the faint hearted. It is extremely challenging for everybody involved. From the outside we may wonder why we won’t get an update or firm commitments on dates. Until technical processes are debugged, teams are stabilised, it is really difficult to make a statement, simply because you don’t know what hits you next.
Every day the team will get closer to a ‘boring’ factory, this is a good thing! Because what is boring is also predictable, what is predictable must be reliable.

I understand this is a bit of a handful to read, but sometimes it seems we have a tendency to oversimplify the task of putting a new car in production with a new team.
Thanks - your summary was interesting & detailed.

It certainly puts into more perspective the magnitude of the IA effort introducing the Grenadier.

Maybe in hindsight, starting production on 16 October 2022 was a little premature as probably a range of issues have risen and now more than 3,000 cars have probably already been made, many requiring updates/changes.

But conversly, could it be correct to say that only by starting production back in October that these additional issues are able to be uncovered?
 

Sam

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But conversly, could it be correct to say that only by starting production back in October that these additional issues are able to be uncovered?
Yes, absolutely correct.

Highly unlikely to find a 1-in-1000 fault if you've only built 50 prototypes. Might even miss it in 5000 prototypes.

More likely I think they’re dealing with something 1-in-1
 

CEMechanic

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Thanks - your summary was interesting & detailed.

It certainly puts into more perspective the magnitude of the IA effort introducing the Grenadier.

Maybe in hindsight, starting production on 16 October 2022 was a little premature as probably a range of issues have risen and now more than 3,000 cars have probably already been made, many requiring updates/changes.

But conversly, could it be correct to say that only by starting production back in October that these additional issues are able to be uncovered?
There is always risk in launching production (early). The question is how good is your risk mitigation.
Rumour has it that as an engineer at Toyota you will need CEO approval to make a running production design change. This puts the organisation under so much pressure to work defect free, that by culture and by process there will be only very few problems that have to be dealt with.

With Ineos, they do need to get going and prove out their production capability. They can have strict rules and processes in place, but they won’t have the experience with people and the vehicle to have the same results as an established manufacturer, even if this is not a start up plant.
 
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